Author(s): SCHMIDT, L., ROTH, R., Institution: GERMAN SPORTS UNIVERSITY COLOGNE, Country: GERMANY, Abstract-ID: 2456

INTRODUCTION
In early 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in all areas of society. While many public and private facilities were forced to close, outdoor recreation experienced a revival as people flocked to natural areas, using them as a place to socialise and build resilience in times of contact restrictions [1]. Few studies have investigated this effect in winter activities [2]. This study aimed to investigate pandemic-induced changes in cross-country skiing (XC) demand in the Black Forest, Germany, controlling for weather and temporal conditions.
METHODS
XC demand was recorded hourly using photoelectric sensors during the winter months of 2017-2023 (except 2020, when one sensor was missing). Weather data included air temperature (T), dew point (DT), sunshine duration (S) and precipitation (P) and were collected from nearby weather stations. In a 2017-2019 reference period, Spearman’s rho (rs) and visual analysis of scatter plots determined the relationship between variables and XC demand. Correlated variables, interactions and XC demand from reference period were then used to train a quasi-Poisson (QP) model to predict XC demand in pandemic years, which were split into 2021 (lockdown), 2022 (eased restrictions) and 2023 (post-covid). The Mann-Whitney U test was used to identify significant (p<0.05) differences between XC demand in pandemic periods and QP model predictions.
RESULTS
Day-of-week (rs=0.4), time-of-day (rs=-0.3), DT (rs=-0.35), S (rs=0.34) and P (rs=-0.29) showed weak correlations with XC demand. Visual interpretation of scatter plots showed these correlations to be considerable. T did not correlate with XC demand (rs=0.0). However, a multivariate scatter plot analysis revealed a negative interaction between T and P in relation to XC demand, indicating that XC demand decreases when P occurs at higher T. Day-of-week, time-of-day, DT, S and the interaction of T and P showed a significant effect on XC demand in the QP model. XC demand in 2021 was 49% higher than QP model predictions (p<0.001). XC demand in 2022 and 2023 was 28% (p=0.009) resp. 22% (p=0.001) higher than QP model predictions.
CONCLUSION
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, XC demand was significantly higher in all pandemic periods studied. This study provides an example of a lasting effect of increased outdoor recreation demand, particularly in XC, after the pandemic. These findings highlight the importance of nature as a recreational space and of activities such as XC for psychophysical well-being and their social role as a source of resilience, especially in times of crisis [1]. Possible negative effects of increased demand, such as overcrowding and increased conflict potential, must not be neglected and require efficient and ongoing visitor management and monitoring, as well as appropriate training for natural area managers [3].
REFERENCES
1) Pröbstl-Haider et al. (2023) JORT
2) Schlemmer & Schnitzer (2023) JORT
3) Ferguson et al. (2023) JORT