Author(s): MORGANTI, G., VITARELLI, M., STRASSOLDO DI VILLANOVA, F., RUSCELLO, B., PADUA, E., Institution: UNIVERSITÀ SAN RAFFAELE - ROMA, Country: ITALY, Abstract-ID: 1751

Introduction
The Standard Model of Talent Development (SMTD) is a common deterministic talent pathway adopted by sports systems. Athletes’ progression through the SMTD is related to acquiring early abilities and achieving early results. The SMTD causes the specialization of the selected few and the de-selection of the many unable to fit in with the requirements of the organizations and leads to several reported selection biases [1]. Youth performance outcomes are dependent on contextual factors, which eventually lead to birth advantages (relative age effects (RAEs) and birthplace effects). This study aimed to investigate birth advantages’ influences on the Italian swimming talent pathway. We hypothesized that (a) value-directedness towards competition and working hard promoted in Italian swimming, reflected in early specialization practices and early success promotion, would cause the presence of RAEs; and (b) regional disparities that characterize Italy, would define swimmers’ developmental experiences and their skill-acquisition processes.
Methods
We explored the birth quarter (BQ) and place of early development (PED) of male Italian youth swimmers (age groups: 15-year, n=341, 17-year, n=380), competing at the annual Winter Italian National Youth Championship. To explore whether birth advantages influence national-level youth swimmers’ participation, the observed BQs and PEDs distribution of the 15-year age group were compared to the expected values (i.e., census statistics). Moreover, to investigate how birth advantages influence swimmers’ ability to maintain their national status, the observed BQs and PEDs distributions of the 17-year age group were compared to the expected values (i.e., 15-year age group).
Results
Results revealed skewed BQs (P<0.0001) and PEDs (P<0.0001) distributions in the 15-year age group. BQ1s and swimmers developing in Central Italy were more likely to compete at National level (odds ratios (ORs), BQ1 vs. BQ4: 2.82; Centre vs. South: 2.60). The 17-year age group’s BQs (P=0.008) and PEDs (P=0.04) distributions were skewed compared to the 15-year age group. BQ3s, BQ4s, and swimmers developing in North and Central Italy recorded the highest ORs of maintaining their national status (1.56, 1.43, 2.42, 1.25 respectively).
Conclusions
Findings revealed talent appears as a relational phenomenon based on contextual factors that indirectly define swimmers’ performance outcomes. Value-directedness towards competition causes the overrepresentation of BQ1s, who are favored at the beginning of the developmental stage, but who contrary to expectations are less likely to retain their national status. Indeed, value-directedness towards working hard (i.e., resilience) may favor the few BQ3s and BQ4s to further develop. Moreover, findings showed that Italian regional disparities undermine South Italian youth swimmers’ access to facilities, thus limiting their sport-specific skill progression.
Bibliography
1) Bailey & Collins, 2013.