Author(s): RÖSCH, D.1, HÖNER, O.1, HUTH, M.2,3, ADELT, T.4, MAERZ, A.4, LEYHR, D.1, Institution: UNIVERSITY OF TUEBINGEN, Country: GERMANY, Abstract-ID: 821

INTRODUCTION:
Recent studies highlight the impact of outcomes related to biological maturation on talent identification and development processes in youth basketball [1]. As height is regarded a contributing factor to performance in basketball, methods for predicting adult height are of particular interest in this context. While there is evidence on the reliability of biological maturity status assessments, knowledge on the reliability of methods to predict adult height is still lacking [2]. Thus, the aim of this longitudinal study was to analyze the reliability of methods for adult height prediction.
METHODS:
The samples consist of N=27 female U14/U15 (Mage[T1]=13.87; Mage[T2]=14.16) and N=37 male U14 (Mage[T1]=13.26; Mage[T2]=13.56) players of two different institutions of the German talent development system (youth academy or regional selection team). Players’ predicted adult height (PAH) was assessed at two different time points (T1 and T2) by the method of Khamis & Roche [KR; 3] and via the BAUs Sport Sonic Bone ultrasound (US) device. (i) The methods’ test-retest reliability was investigated via correlation analyses. Additionally, one-sample t-tests were used to analyze absolute differences in adult height predictions between T1 and T2. The reference value was set to Mdiff=0, as height predictions were not expected to change. (ii) Paired-samples t-tests examined differences in predictions of the two methods at both time points. Cohen’s d served as effect size.
RESULTS:
(i) Reliability analyses revealed high correlations between T1 and T2 for both methods in females (r≥.99) and males (r≥.94). However, the analyses of absolute differences between time points indicated significant differences in PAH estimates in both samples for PAH by KR (females: Mdiff=0.53, p<.001, d=1.29; males: Mdiff=0.58, p<.01, d=.53) and PAH by US (females: Mdiff=0.80, p<.001, d=.95; males: Mdiff=1.21, p<.001, d=.89). (ii) Significant differences were found between PAH by KR and by US at T1 (p<.001, d=.73) and T2 (p<.01, d=.62) in females, whereas no differences in PAH predictions were present in males at either time point (p≥.10).
CONCLUSION:
While results of the correlation analyses support the reliability of both investigated PAH estimation methods, analyses of differences between time points revealed distinct inconsistencies in the agreement. Thus, results reinforce the need for regular monitoring of maturation-related outcomes to decrease potential measurement errors. The discrepancies in accuracy between the two methods in females, together with the advanced maturation of the analyzed sample, require further investigations. Further measurements in this project may provide insights, as may future validation studies of PAH methods in basketball and other sports where height is considered just as important.
REFERENCES:
[1] Albaladejo-Saura et al. (2021). Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18(1), 328.
[2] Leyhr et al. (2020). Front Sports Act Living, 2, 587861.
[3] Khamis & Roche (1994). Ped, 94(4), 504-507.