Author(s): BRÜNING, L., WINTER, C., DÖRINGER, F., PFEIFFER, M., Institution: JOHANNES GUTENBERG-UNIVERSITY, Country: GERMANY, Abstract-ID: 555

INTRODUCTION:
Talent selection represents a central phase of talent development, as positive selection decisions generally provide access to advanced support measures and thus substantially influence long-term performance development. The process extends over several years and comprises a series of successive selection decisions. Talent research focuses on examining this process. In the widely recognized framework model Talent Development in Achievement Domains, it is postulated that the relevance of individual talent criteria changes over the course of development, such that different talent predictors become important at different developmental stages. In contrast, current studies often focus solely on selection decisions at a single point in time. In the field of sport, it has not yet been sufficiently clarified whether talent characteristics assessed at a given time point (t₀) exhibit comparable explanatory power across multiple selection decisions. The present study investigates the temporal stability and changes in the explanatory power of talent factors across several selection decisions using motor performance abilities as indicators.
METHODS:
Between 2017 and 2019, a total of 535 athletes aged 12 years participated in a motor performance testing program conducted by the Hessian Handball Association. The test battery consisted of six tests: 20-m sprint (S), dribbling test (DT), throwing test (TT), jump-and-reach (JR), shuttle run (SR), and push-up (PU). To examine the relationship between individual test results and selection decisions, binary logistic regression models were applied. Analyses were conducted separately by sex and by stage of the selection decision (t₁ = regional squad, t₂ = national team screening, t₃ = youth national squad, t₄ = adult playing level). Odds Ratio (OR) were calculated as effect sizes to represent the likelihood of player nomination. The explanatory power of the models was assessed using Nagelkerke R².
RESULTS:
The results indicate that at t₁, throwing test (OR = 2.06), dribbling test (OR = 1.59), and shuttle run (OR = 1.73) influenced selection decisions among boys, whereas for girls only the throwing test (OR = 2.18) showed a significant effect. At t₂, an effect on selection decisions was observed for the throwing test among boys (OR = 2.06) and for the shuttle run among girls (OR = 3.63). At t₃, no significant predictors were identified for either sex. Selection decisions at t₄ could be explained among boys by the push-up test (OR = 2.40) and the throwing test (OR = 2.45). No significant results were found for girls at this stage.
CONCLUSION:
The findings demonstrate that the effects of motor performance tests differ across the various phases of talent selection. This variation may, among other factors, be attributed to the fact that selection decisions at different stages are made by different coaches who may hold varying conceptualizations of talent. Furthermore, the results indicate that the relevance of talent criteria differs between sexes.