Author(s): ZHANG, X., LIU, J., ZONG, S., CUI, Y., QI, B., Institution: BEIJING SPORT UNIVERSITY, Country: CHINA, Abstract-ID: 2763

INTRODUCTION:
Tennis match outcomes depend on the stability of tactical decisions under various situational pressure, and the tactics of serve and subsequent first shot (Serve +1) have been prioritized within the scoring pattern of players since around 70% of points under 4 shots. Yet existing research relies heavily on aggregated match statistics, offering limited into how players adapt serve tactics in context-specific scenarios. This study quantifies serve tactical tendencies and scoring efficiency among men's singles players across multi-level pressure contexts to evaluate adaptive decision-making strategies.
METHODS:
A total of 247 men's singles matches from the 2023-2025 Roland Garros (French Open) were included. A logic-based screening identified four core serve tactics: Strong Serve, One-two Punch, Wrong Foot, and Drop Shot, using serve landing coordinates, rally length, and point outcomes. Validation included: 1) macro-validation: correlation (r) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) against official statistics; 2) micro-validation: accuracy and recall against manual annotation. Situational pressure was defined as three levels: Macro (set status: regular and deciding sets); Meso (game status: leading, regular, trailing, critical, and tie-break games); and Micro (point importance: regular points, critical points including game, deuce, and break points, and tie-break points). A Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) assessed situational effects on tactic selection and scoring efficiency.
RESULTS:
The classifier demonstrated high validity: macro-validation showed strong agreement with official data (r = 0.961, MAE = 1.97, p < 0.001); micro-validation yielded 96.15% precision and 57.47% recall. Situational pressure significantly influenced tactical behavior. At the Macro level, player reduced tactical diversity in deciding sets, favoring high-probability scoring patterns (One-two Punch usage rising from 21.9% in regular sets to 26.2%). At the meso-level, trailing players exhibited greater tactical flexibility, though with fluctuating tactic usage and efficiency (usage peaked in tie-break games at 26.0%, while scoring efficiency dropped to approximately 61% during critical games). At the Micro level, critical points significantly increased reliance on the "One-two Punch" tactic (reaching 26.0% in tie-break points), though its scoring conversion rate was more inconsistent compared to regular points.
CONCLUSION:
Data trends suggest high-pressure situations require superior precision in tactical execution. Serve tactical performance on clay courts is dynamically modulated by multi-dimensional situational pressure. Elite players consolidate their tactical repertoire during critical moments, even at the cost of reduced execution efficiency. These findings inform context-specific training drills simulating critical match scenarios to enhance tactical resilience and decision-making
precision in elite tennis.