Author(s): HU, H., ZHOU, Y.C., Institution: NANJING SPORT INSTITUTE , Country: CHINA, Abstract-ID: 238

Introduction
Elite athletes represent a critical resource for the sustainable development of high-performance sport. In Olympic disciplines such as swimming, extending competitive longevity is essential for maximizing performance return and reducing the high costs of talent development. Although Chinese swimming has achieved sustained international success, maintaining athletes at peak performance across multiple competitive cycles remains a major challenge. This study aimed to identify key determinants of career longevity in Chinese elite swimmers and to characterize life-course patterns of athletic development.

Methods
Guided by life-course theory, a retrospective design was applied. Following an a priori power analysis (power = 0.95, α = 0.05), 189 valid questionnaires were collected from elite Chinese swimmers (95 active, 94 retired) across 21 provinces. Participants included 104 males and 85 females, with 41 national-team athletes and 134 National Master level or above. Random forest analysis was used to identify key predictors, followed by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Education level, sport classification, athlete type, and primary stroke were treated as categorical variables. Multicollinearity was assessed and excluded.

Results
Mean career length was 14.49 ± 0.35 years, with only 17.98% of athletes competing for more than 15 years. Clear stage-specific developmental patterns were observed. Male athletes entered key training stages later than females but had shorter professional careers. Education level and sport classification significantly influenced career longevity, with performance acting as a key mediator. Athletes with higher education showed significantly longer careers. Intrinsic motivation during early training stages was strongly protective, whereas excessive training load, high fatigue, and injury-related absences markedly increased retirement risk. Balanced nutrition, moderate training volume, and effective coach–athlete communication were associated with prolonged careers.

Conclusion
Career longevity in elite Chinese swimmers is determined by the interaction of developmental, training, physiological, and psychosocial factors. Early motivation, appropriate load management, sufficient recovery, and supportive coaching environments are critical for sustaining long-term performance. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for optimizing talent development and promoting sustainable elite sport performance.