INTRODUCTION:
In elite football, teams can achieve success through different performance types based on player performance. A standout individual performance is where one player performs substantially better than the rest of the team while a balanced team performance is where all players perform equally. In domestic leagues, standout performances were strongly associated with goal difference (Ball, et al., 2025). International tournaments present a different environment as teams are constrained to fixed national squads and cannot recruit to address tactical weaknesses, which alter how performance types relate to success. This study examined associations between performance type (standout or balanced) and match outcomes in elite international tournaments.
METHODS:
Match and player rating data were collected from seven international tournaments (Men’s 2018, 2022, and Women’s 2023 World Cups, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, 2024 Copa América and Men’s 2024 and Women’s 2025 European Championship), comprising 358 matches and 3,485 players. Each team's match performance was classified as standout if any player rating was ≥2 SD above their team’s within-match mean; otherwise, it was balanced. Descriptive analyses summarised performance type by outcome (win-draw-loss) and the positional distribution of standout performances. Probabilistic outcome models estimated win-draw-loss likelihood as a function of previous match outcome, player ratings, and performance type.
RESULTS:
Balanced and standout performances occurred at similar rates (49% vs 51% of team-match observations), but balanced performances produced more wins (40% vs 34%) and fewer draws (23% vs 29%), with similar losses (37%). Standout performances were most common among midfielders (34%) and attackers (25%). In the outcome models, higher overall mean ratings were strongly associated with winning (log-odds = 4.02, 95% CrI 3.34 to 4.76). In contrast, the presence of a standout individual showed no clear independent association with match outcomes once previous match outcome, player ratings, and performance types were accounted for (log-odds = −0.18, 95% CrI −0.81 to 0.46).
CONCLUSION:
Across international tournaments, match outcomes aligned more with overall team performance than reliance on a standout individual. Although standout performances were common and occurred across positions, they showed no clear independent association with match outcomes once team performance and match context were considered. In short tournament formats with limited scope for correction, sustaining consistent team performance may be a more reliable route to success than isolated standout performances.
Ball, J., Huynh, M., & Varley, M. C. (2025). Associations between individual and balanced team performance and soccer match outcomes. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2025.2567757