Author(s): CHEN, Y., CHENG, C.F., WANG, J.S., HUANG, K.E., CHANG, S.H., Institution: NATIONAL TAIWAN NORMAL UNIVERSITY, Country: TAIWAN, Abstract-ID: 1608

This study examines the evolution of competitive balance and the geographical concentration of team strength within the Men's Division I of the University Basketball Association (UBA) in Taiwan, spanning the 2014 to 2024 academic years. Grounded in the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (Rottenberg, 1956) and the League Standing Effect (Neale, 1964), the research addresses the scarcity of longitudinal empirical evidence in Asian collegiate sports. To mitigate biases arising from tournament format variations, the analysis focuses exclusively on the single round-robin preliminary stage (totaling 1,307 games), utilizing pre-game winning percentages as the core unit of analysis. Methodologically, a multi-indicator framework employing the Noll-Scully ratio (NS), Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), and Gini coefficient is applied. Furthermore, a logistic regression model incorporating academic-year fixed effects is utilized to control for temporal heterogeneity, thereby isolating regional influences on competitive outcomes.Empirical results reveal a persistent state of significant disequilibrium, evidenced by an overall mean NS ratio of 1.597, which substantially exceeds the ideal theoretical value of 1.0 (Owen, 2014). This imbalance intensified following the establishment of professional leagues between 2022 and 2024. Geographically, while the disparity among the top four teams is statistically insignificant, a pronounced North-dominant, Central-weak structure emerges at the top eight threshold. After controlling for year-specific effects and round contexts, teams from the Central region exhibit a significantly lower probability of advancement, with an odds ratio of 0.302 compared to their Northern counterparts. These findings corroborate that absent institutional intervention (Vrooman, 2009), competitive resources inevitably concentrate in major markets. The study contributes by establishing a longitudinal database for student leagues and refining metric precision through season-length adjustments (Doria & Nalebuff, 2020). Consequently, policy interventions such as scholarship caps and differential resource allocation for non-Northern institutions are recommended to mitigate regional polarization and ensure long-term league sustainability.
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