Author(s): WANG, J., CHENG, C.F., CHANG, S.H., HUANG, K.E., CHEN, Y.C., Institution: NATIONAL TAIWAN NORMAL UNIVERSITY (NTNU) , Country: TAIWAN, Abstract-ID: 1600

This study empirically investigates the structural evolution of the NBA shooting architecture and its impact on game outcomes from 2004-05 to 2024-25, specifically aiming to identify the definitive transition into the Three-Point Era and analyze the shifting weights of winning factors. Grounded in Skinner (2012) Optimal Stopping Theory, the research conceptualizes shot selection as a dynamic decision-making threshold problem where players must weigh the expected value of an immediate shot against the opportunity cost of future possessions. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of game-level statistics (N = 50,534), the authors employed the Bai-Perron structural break test to empirically detect regime changes without imposing arbitrary dates (Bai & Perron, 1998). To rigorously evaluate the marginal contribution of shooting strategies, OLS point spread models and Logit win-probability models were constructed. A critical methodological feature is the precise control for game pace using Oliver (2004) possession formula and Sampaio and Janeira (2003) normalization method, ensuring that volume effects are not confounded by accelerated modern play speeds. Additionally, the models controlled for free throw differentials, turnovers, and rebounds to isolate field goal efficiency effects. The analysis identified the 2015-16 season as the definitive structural turning point (supF = 122.67), marking the onset of the Grand Three-Point Era. Results reveal a distinct structural shift: prior to 2015, the marginal contribution of two-point efficiency to winning was significantly higher than that of three-point shooting, indicating a dominance of interior efficiency. However, in the post-2015 era, the weight of three-point efficiency rose dramatically, becoming statistically equipotent to two-point efficiency. Crucially, after controlling for game rhythm, a simple increase in three-point attempt volume does not guarantee a higher win rate, confirming that the winning logic has transformed from Volume Expansion to Efficiency Competition. The study contributes by establishing a verified timeline for the era, proving that volume alone yields diminishing returns in equilibrium, and offering strategic implications that contemporary strategies should prioritize the creation of high-quality three-point opportunities rather than the maximization of attempts.
References
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
Oliver, D. (2004). Basketball on paper: Rules and tools for performance analysis. Potomac Books.
Sampaio, J., & Janeira, M. (2003). Statistical analysis of basketball team performance: understanding teams' wins and losses according to a different index of ball possessions. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
Skinner, B. (2012). The problem of shot selection in basketball. PLoS ONE, 7(1), e30776.