RESEARCH ON THE PREDICTION MODEL OF AVERAGE PACE FOR ELITE RACE WALKERS IN COMPETITIONS

Author(s): JIABEI, Y., ZIHONG, H., WEI, C., YIRU, C., RONGHUA, F., YONG, H., YONG, L., Institution: BEIJING INSTITUTE OF SPORTS SCIENCE, Country: CHINA, Abstract-ID: 1308

INTRODUCTION:
This study aimed to explore key indicators associated with competition pace in elite male race walkers by examining the relationships among pre-competition training characteristics, physiological responses, and race performance. Seven male athletes from the Chinese national race walking team participated in this study. All were international-level competitors; six ranked within the top 10 nationally in the men’s 20 km event at the 2024 Taicang Race Walking Tour, and two were selected to represent China in the men’s 20 km race walking event at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, ensuring a highly competitive sample.
METHODS:
Competition data were obtained from the 2024 World Athletics Race Walking Tour and the National Race Walking Grand Prix, with emphasis on the Taicang station. Training data were collected during the 8-week specialized preparation period preceding the Taicang competition. Training intensity was classified according to individualized lactate thresholds (LT1 and LT2), which corresponded to specific training paces. Weekly total specialized training duration and the distribution of training time across three intensity zones (LT2) were recorded to characterize training load structure. All statistical analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS 26.0. Data were expressed as mean ± standard deviation. Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine relationships between training characteristics, physiological indicators, and average competition pace. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed with 20 km average pace as the dependent variable and pre-race training load and lactate threshold–related variables as independent variables. Multicollinearity was assessed using variance inflation factors, and internal validation was performed using leave-one-out cross-validation. Statistical significance was set at α = 0.05.
RESULTS:
The results showed that the average pace of the 20 km race at the 2024 Taicang Tour (3:53 min/km) was highly consistent with the pace achieved during the 3 km segment of a progressive interval session (5–4–3–2–1 km), indicating that race-specific interval performance reflects competitive pacing ability. Post-race blood lactate concentration (5.9 mmol/L) was comparable to the lactate level measured during the 3 km interval (5.5 mmol/L), suggesting similar metabolic stress between competition and high-intensity training. Analysis of the 8-week pre-competition period revealed a structured intensity distribution. During weeks 8 to 5 before competition, a greater proportion of training time was allocated to the LT1–LT2 and >LT2 zones, emphasizing threshold and supra-threshold load. In contrast, during weeks 4 to 1 before competition, the proportion of CONCLUSION:
These findings indicate that race-pace interval performance, lactate responses, and periodized intensity distribution are key indicators associated with competition pace in elite race walkers.