ECSS Paris 2023: CP-AP33
INTRODUCTION: The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) World Championships are among the most prestigious international ice hockey tournaments, with success determined by a combination of offensive, defensive, and strategic metrics. Understanding the factors that drive success in these championships is crucial for teams seeking to improve their competitive edge. Previous research has explored individual performance factors in ice hockey, but there has been limited systematic investigation into the determinants of medal-winning teams at the international level. METHODS: This study applies Bayesian Ridge Regression and Ordinal Logistic Regression to analyze data from the IIHF World Championships (2010–2024) for both mens and womens tournaments. A comprehensive dataset was compiled, including key performance indicators such as goals scored, assists, penalty minutes, shots on goal, save percentage, and player age metrics. Teams were categorized into four groups—gold medalists, silver medalists, bronze medalists, and non-medalists—allowing for a more granular analysis of success factors. Multinomial logistic and ordinal regression models were employed to assess the relationship between team statistics and medal rankings. RESULTS: Results indicate that offensive performance metrics, such as goals per game (β = 0.825, p < 0.01) and assists per game (β = 0.789, p < 0.01), were the strongest predictors of gold medal success in men’s hockey, while save percentage (β = 0.005, p < 0.01) and shooting efficiency (β = 0.689, p < 0.05) played a more significant role in women’s hockey. The effect of penalty minutes per game (PIM/GP) was found to be negatively correlated with success in men’s hockey (-0.0565, p < 0.05) and women’s hockey (-0.0406, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In men’s hockey, offensive metrics such as Goals per Game and Assists per Game were dominant predictors for winning gold medals, whereas Save Percentage was more important for securing silver and bronze medals. In women’s hockey, shot efficiency (Shot Percentage, Shots per Game) had the strongest impact on winning gold, while Penalty Minutes per Game (PIM/GP) showed a moderate correlation with medal success. These findings highlight the distinct determinants of success in men’s and women’s tournaments. The results emphasize the importance of offensive efficiency in men’s hockey and a balanced approach between offensive and defensive metrics in women’s hockey. Additionally, minimizing penalties could improve team success, as aggressive playstyles do not necessarily lead to better outcomes.
Read CV Taylan AytaçECSS Paris 2023: CP-AP33
INTRODUCTION: The relative age effect (RAE) describes an overrepresentation of athletes born early in a chronological selection year. In this report, the dynamics of the RAE in ice hockey were described by analysing the distributions of relative age (RA) across junior and adult elite selections in a large Swedish cohort. METHODS: This retrospective, longitudinal study was conducted using birth dates collected from a cohort of players attending certified Swedish ice hockey high schools between 1998 and 2017 (n=2363). First, RA was defined as a numeric variable ranging from 0 to 0.99, along with the quarterly terms of the birth year (Q1 – Q4). Data on player selection to the Swedish national U16 team and the National Hockey League (NHL) were retrieved from open databases. Next, RA in the cohort was compared to the general Swedish population using birth data from Statistics Sweden (1), covering the number of children born per month between January 1, 1982, and December 31, 1998. Finally, distributions and group-based differences of RA across elite teams were visualised and described, and generalized logistic regression models were used to compute RA-associated selection probabilities adjusted for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Individuals with a higher RA were overrepresented in Swedish ice hockey programmes. In detail, 36.7% vs. 13.2% of the included players in the sample were born in Q1 and Q4, respectively, compared to 26.1% (Q1) and 21.7% (Q4) in the Swedish national reference. Key differences in the absolute distribution of players and relative selection probabilities across RA were observed. Players born in Q1 were about twice as likely to reach the U16 national team than late-born players (Q4), corresponding to absolute numbers of 169 (19.5%) and 32 (10.3%) players, respectively. Consequently, numeric RA was identified as a significant predictor of U16 selection in a regression model (P < 0.01). In contrast, 44 (5.1%) born in Q1 and 25 (8.0%) players born in Q4 were selected for the NHL, suggesting trends favouring late-born players. However, in a regression model, numeric RA was not a significant predictor of reaching the NHL (P = 0.21). CONCLUSION: Early-born players are overrepresented in certified Swedish high school programmes, and they are more likely to be selected for the U16 national team. Considering adult success, RA was not identified as an important predictor of NHL selection, and the overrepresentation of early-born players here may be due to earlier selection biases. Reference 1. Births and deaths per month by sex, 1851 – 2023. Statistics Sweden.
Read CV Marlene RietzECSS Paris 2023: CP-AP33
INTRODUCTION: The relationship between anthropometric characteristics and both on-ice and off-ice performance in ice hockey players over 18 years of age is well-documented (Potteiger et al., 2010; Peterson et al., 2015; Runner et al., 2016). However, these characteristics have not been thoroughly examined across different age categories of players under eighteen. The purpose of this study was to analyze differences in anthropometric characteristics, on-ice, and off-ice performance and to investigate potential relationships among these factors in Slovak National Hockey Teams in the U15, U17, and U18 categories. METHODS: A total of 120 male members of the Slovak National Hockey Team participated in this study, including players from the U15 (n = 44; age 14.8 ± 0.24 years), U17 (n = 34; age 16.7 ± 0.34 years), and U18 (n = 42; age 17.6 ± 0.48 years) categories. First, body height (BH), body composition, and two off-ice tests—squat jump (SJ) and countermovement jump (CMJ) were performed. Subsequently, on-ice testing in full hockey gear was conducted, consisting of a 40m forward sprint (40FS), a 40m backward sprint (40BS), an agility test with the puck to the left (AGL) and right (AGR), and six 40m shuttle sprints (60SS). Standardized warm-up protocols, tailored separately for on-ice and off-ice measurements, were conducted before each testing session. All testing procedures took place on the same day. RESULTS: U18 players had significantly greater BH (p < 0.01), body weight (p < 0.01), and muscle mass (p < 0.01) compared to U17 players. However, no significant differences were observed between U18 and U17 players in either on-ice or off-ice performance. Except for BH, U17 and U18 players showed significantly higher values across all measured variables compared to U15 players (p < 0.01). A significant relationship was observed between SJ and 60SS (U18, r = -0.695, p < 0.001; U17, r = -0.727, p < 0.001), 40FS (U18, r = -0.851, p < 0.001; U17, r = -0.686, p < 0.001), and 40BS (U18, r = -0.552, p < 0.001). Similarly, CMJ correlated with 60SS (U18, r = -0.672, p < 0.001; U17, r = -0.657, p < 0.001), 40FS (U18, r = -0.808, p < 0.001; U17, r = -0.650, p < 0.001), and 40BS (U18, r = -0.515, p < 0.01). No significant relationships were found in the U15 category. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that natural physiological differences between age groups (U15 vs. U17 and U18) may account for the observed disparities in performance and anthropometric characteristics. While relationships between on-ice and off-ice performance were evident in U17 and U18 players, no correlations were found in U15 players. This lack of correlation in U15 players may be attributed to limited training experience with jumping exercises and/or lower levels of strength and power development.
Read CV Milan KováčECSS Paris 2023: CP-AP33